A SPATIAL-AND-SCALE-DEPENDANT MODEL FOR PREDICTING MSW GENERATION, DIVERSION AND COLLECTION COST BASED ON DWELLING-TYPE DISTRIBUTION

Comprehensive models were developed to predict waste generation for different collection streams. Taking into account the dwelling-type distribution encountered during the different waste collections, it was possible to better capture the waste generation variability. Using the same approach, collection and transportation cost models were also developed. This series of models were validated using data from the Urban Agglomeration of Montreal (UAM), which is composed of 33 districts with widely different scales of population and dwelling characteristics. The unknown parameters of the models were identified through mean square regressions applied on the real data available for the case-study. For example, values of 1.364, 1.019 and 0.500 t/(dwelling.yr) were identified for the total quantity of wastes generated in single-family, duplex and other dwelling, respectively. Using the same approach, it was possible to determine collection time as a function of the dwelling-type distribution along the collection route. Values of 28.7 s, 11.4 s and 5.22 s were identified as the collection time per dwelling for single-family, duplex and other dwelling, respectively. Equipped with a combination of fitted parameters and reported values from the literature, the models were used as predictive tools. Three features are illustrated in this paper: 1) the simulation of various scales for the generation, diversion and specific collection cost; 2) the effect of adding a new collection stream; 3) the effect of an increase of the citizen participation to a specific collection stream. Predicted results enable decision-makers to have access to very useful information.