Scenarios and possible futures for hospitality and tourism

Purpose – This paper seeks to discuss the process and results of a scenario exercise applied to the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industries with a 2020 horizon.Design/methodology/approach – Through an intuitive‐logical process adapted to the specific purposes of the research, four alternative scenarios of the evolution of the industry were developed. The exercise involved three workshops, with the participation of a group of experts, academics, representatives from industry and local government.Findings – Based on the nature and dynamics of the key forces and trends, the four scenarios identified are: southern experience; global emotions; “sin surprise”; and non‐charming Portugal. In all scenarios there is increased global competition amongst tourist destinations. A desire for authenticity opens the opportunity for Portugal as a tourist destination but it also poses challenges for managers and policy makers. These scenarios are of practical use for managers, policy makers and other practitioners as ...