Long-term forecast model of spring runoff on the Belaya river

This article presents the results of long-term forecasting of spring runoff in the Belaya River basin, based on the water balance model. To optimize the structure and parameters of the water balance model equations, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was used to impose restrictions on the input data values. The obtained values of the equations’ coefficients were checked according to the criterion D/s adopted in the hydrometeorological service. The reliability of the predictive method used was assessed by statistical calculations of the stability of their parameters and test calculations on an independent sample. All equations obtained during the numerical experiment may be suitable to make forecasts.