AN APPROACH TO DYNAMIC ROUTE TRAVEL TIME FORECAST ON URBAN EXPRESSWAY NETWORK

In this paper, the authors propose a dynamic traffic flow and route travel time forecast technique for an urban express network. The technique uses a state space model and an auto-regressive model and makes the dynamic forecasts on the basis of observed traffic flow in a time series. The state space model and the auto-regressive model are first established, using the observed traffic flow. The models are then used to forecast traffic flow and route travel time. The forecast results are presented and assessed.