Processes for managing project uncertainty with contingency planning

One of the most pervasive problems faced by project managers is controlling a large project in an uncertain and distributed work environment. We believe that many of the inherent difficulties in managing large engineering and software projects result from difficulties in managing the uncertainty inherent in any lengthy, complex undertaking. Currently available project management tools allow the project manager to perform “what-if” and risk analyses, but do not support the management of an uncertain project environment. Existing decision support systems allow analysis of known facts about the project, but they focus upon what should be done with information after it is available. They do not support decision-making in the face of evolving and often insufficient project information, and they do not support the decision-maker when a plan must be enacted even before a decision can be made. Also, they assume that decisions are made once, instantaneously, and in isolation from the external project environment.