Generation of a Predictive Model of Urban Growth Through the Application of Cellular Automata in the Valley de los Chillos, Ecuador

The dynamism of the Quito Metropolitan Distract (QMD) in Ecuador has led to the creation of new living spaces in their surroundings, especially within the nearby Chillos Valley, which presented a marked increase on its land use and cover, allowing more space to human activities. However, this process lacked to be aligned with the plans established by local authorities. Nonetheless, the correct past, present and future analysis of this phenomenon may provide decision tools for the proper management of the territory and risks that the inadequate occupation may lead to. The purpose of the current study has been the structuring of a model to properly predict the phenomenon of urban growth, based on its historical trend, using the technique of cellular automata, along with considerations of probability of the spatial distribution provided by Markov chains and statistical analysis in order to determine the influence of physical and logistical variables. In order to accomplish such goal, initially, land coverage information layers for three different years have been generated, through satellite image classification. Once structured, the model has been validated using the kappa index, categorizing it as a model of well adjustment, certifying their use for the subsequent production of simulated land cover layers for the years 2020 and 2025. The analysis of the results identified the dynamic of growth, mainly characterized by the transformation of farmland into urban uses.