Preparing Australian dairy businesses for extreme and more variable climates - a research project integrating economic, biophysical and social aspects
2014
The Australian dairy industry has put significant eort into exploring the potential impacts of climate change, however
four key limitations remain:
1. Climate change is only one of many drivers that influence the dairy business, other economic and social drivers must
also be considered in any system analysis.
2. Current (rather than future) farming systems have been etested’ using predicted future climates.
3. Average predicted changes in temperature and rainfall is the focus of most research. The challenge to farming
businesses is the impact of extremes, increased variability, the sequencing of climate events and the emergence of
tipping points and/or unexpected vulnerabilities.
4. Strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change have not been cross matched to understand the trade-os
and impacts on other business risks within the whole farm system.
To inform future investment it is critical that the Australian dairy industry fully explores the impacts of climate extremes
and a more variable climate. Using three dairy businesses in differing regions, a range of farm development options
will be explored - some options will push the boundaries of current farming practice, but all will retain economic
and social reality. Biophysical and economic modelling, social research and farmer engagement will assist to identify
farm management responses that make economic sense and build human and biophysical capability to manage a more
challenging future.
The project examines:
1. Trade-os between profitability, risk, social impacts, and greenhouse gas emissions associated with realistic farm
development options across farming systems.
2. Potential impacts of climate variability and extreme events on economic, biophysical and social aspects of farm
development options.
3. Management options that provide the most effective adaptation and mitigation outcomes.
4. Skills and industry support systems required to build capacity to respond, considering the reduced decision making
capacity that accompanies increased uncertainty.
Preliminary research demonstrates that increased periods of drought as well as more intense rainfall events will reduce
median pasture production by up to 31% in Southern Australia, whereas more frequent exposure to heat waves will
reduce pasture and milk production by as much as 28% and 20%, respectively. The combined effect of extended periods
of drought, more intense rainfall events, longer heat waves and increased frequencies of hot days will reduce pasture
production by up to 36%. Future work will examine how these impacts influence the temporal sequence of annual farm
revenue and possible social consequences of risk perception and farm adaptation to extreme climatic events.
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