Trend Prediction and Analysis of Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption during the Period 1995-2009 in Anhui Province Based on the STIRPAT Model

Quantitative analysis of driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption can show influential factors of carbon emissions.By restricting one or some of the factors that can effectively reduce carbon emissions,it is a commonly used method to reduce carbon emissions and climate change.Based on the approach of IPCC for carbon emissions,this study performed an investigation into dynamic measurement of the total carbon emission from energy consumption and carbon emission intensity from 1995 throughout 2009 in Anhui Province.Results indicate an increase in carbon emissions from energy consumption in Anhui Province from 4420.58 ten thousands tons in 1995 to 10 919.11 ten thousands tons in 2009,a yearly increase of 10.48%on average,and a decrease in carbon emission intensity from 0.244 kg/RMB in 1995 to 0.109 kg/ RMB in 2005,a yearly decrease of 9.69%.The carbon emission resulted mostly from coal, accounting for 93.77%.Based on the STIRPAT model,the study revealed that marginal elasticity coefficients of driving factors such as population,per capita GDP,the value contribution of the secondary industry,total fixed asset investment,and energy consumption per unit of GDP are 0.1582,0.2329,0.2424,0.2688,and-0.1176,respectively.Then the grey GM(1,1)model was applied.Carbon emissions in 2015 and 2020 will be expected to expand to 15 686.25 and 22 519.10 ten thousands tons,and the carbon emission intensity will reduce to 0.081kg/RMB and 0.062kg/RMB,respectively.Finally,according to the current characteristics and development trends of carbon emissions from energy consumption,combined with the marginal contribution of driving factors of carbon emissions,some policy recommendations were given to reduce energy consumption,i.e.,1)adjusting economic structure and accelerating the pace of economic restructuring to an energy-saving and intensive one;2)utilizing resources and tools such as economy,law,administration,and media,and strongly promoting the energy saving six high-energy heavy chemical industries;3)controlling the fixed assets investment,and achieving evolution of economic development from an investment-driven mode to an export-driven and consumer-driven mode;4)optimizing the energy structure and improving the proportion of renewable energy;and 5)advancing technological innovation and striving to improve the energy efficiency.This study provides a basis for making energy saving policies for the development of Anhui Province,which would also be helpful for Anhui’s ecological construction and sustainable development.