Analysis of multi-mitigation scenarios on maritime disruptions

In the wheat supply chain, maritime operations have an essential role due to the critical linkages that connect the global transport of this large density and complex freight task (Craighead et al. 2007). Past research shows that an increase in maritime logistics risk is a major limiting factor in the efficient movement of grain from the producer (wheat farmers) to global wheat markets. Maritime logistical risks are wide-ranging and include the uncertainty in vessel arrivals, inventory levels of grain at the port, variety of wheat consignments that arrive, and the impact of a low rail car unloading rate. Other factors that can cause supply disruptions are uncertainty in demand, quality, and performance of maritime logistic services. These significant factors could subsequently create severe disruptive events in the supply chain process of wheat trading. This paper assesses four major mitigation strategies (inventory and sourcing mitigation, contingency rerouting, recovery planning, and business continuity planning) to determine their suitability for managing potential disruptions in the wheat supply chain. A Markovian-based methodology is the prime means used to evaluate the mitigation strategies which will be done in the context of wheat transport from Australia to Indonesia. As a result, the four-stage continuous time period of the Markov chain application enables the measurement and prediction of supply chain costs and time functions in relation to disruptive events to be determined. This may assist entities along the wheat supply chain to be better prepared both when attempting to manage maritime disruptions as well as when re-evaluating their supply chain operation planning in regards to mitigating future maritime disruptions.