Conflict Prevention in the Era of Climate Change: Adapting the UN to Climate-Security Risks

Today’s violent conflicts are proving deadlier and more difficult to resolve than ever before. Over the past decade, the number of civil wars has nearly tripled, driven by a growth in transnational criminal networks, greater presence of radical groups in many settings and a willingness of international actors to support intra-state conflicts. This, in turn, has contributed to historic levels of conflict-related displacement and far higher numbers of civilians caught up in violent conflict. There is a growing recognition too of the role of climate change in exacerbating conflict risks. Climate-related changes in transboundary water resources, food security, sea levels, flood risks and migration patterns are already impacting the stability of many States and will require large-scale adaptation and mitigation. Some have even warned of impending “climate wars,” driven by a dramatic shortfall in key resources as the world overheats. As these trends continue to affect a growing number of countries around the world, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has explicitly placed climate change as a central aspect of the UN’s prevention agenda, as have key Member States. This report aims to support the UN and its partners in developing climate-sensitive conflict prevention approaches. It offers: (1) a literature review covering the major scholarship on the links between climate change and violent conflict; (2) in-depth case studies on climate-security dynamics in Bangladesh and Nigeria; and (3) cross-cutting conclusions and recommendations for the UN system.