Uncertainty of Hydrological Model Components in Climate Change Studies over Two Nordic Quebec Catchments

AbstractProjected climate change effects on hydrology are investigated for the 2041-2060 horizon under the A2 emission scenarios using a multi-model approach over two snowmelt-dominated catchments in Canada. An ensemble of 105 members was obtained by combining seven snow models (SM), five potential evapotranspiration (PET) and three hydrological model (HM) structures. The study was performed using high-resolution simulations from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM-15 km) driven by two members of the Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3). This study aims to compare various combinations of SM-PET-HM in terms of their ability to simulate streamflows under the current climate, and to evaluate how they affect the assessment of the climate change-induced hydrological impacts at the catchment scale. The variability of streamflow response caused by the use of different SMs (degree-day versus degree-day/energy balance), PET methods (temperature-based versus radiation-based methods) and HM structures is eval...