Trend of bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea in Xuanwu,Beijing in 2009

Objective To predict trend of bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea in Xuanwu (now a part of Xicheng district),Beijing in 2009. Methods Data of reported cases of bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea during 2003 ～ 2008 from "China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention"were used to forecast their occurrence trend during 2009 with curve fitting method by SPSS version 12. 0 software. Results In general,bacillary dysentery was in a slow growth trend and other infectious diarrhea disease in a smooth-down trend during 2003 to 2008 in Xuanwu,Beijing,with a fitted curve equation for prediction of infectious diarrhea in 2009 with statistical significance: y = 1778. 35-1206. 678x + 367. 730x2-34. 141x3 (P 0. 05),but not statistically significant for prediction of bacillary dysentery (P 0. 05). Conclusions Incidence of bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea present a down trend in 2009 in Xuanwu,Beijing.