Distribuição temporal de dengue no Rio de Janeiro, 1987-2015: Análise e previsão

Dengue, which has affected most of the Brazilian population in an impactful way since the 1980s, is an infectious disease caused by an arbovirus of the genus Flavivirus. This arbovirus is transmitted in Brazil, predominantly by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, with social and economic impacts in the different social strata. In order to evaluate the number of reported cases of dengue fever in the city of Rio de Janeiro, its seasonality, and prediction of the possibility of peaks in the next years, the data presented on the website of the Municipal Health Department of Rio de Janeiro were analyzed. In this study, we analyzed the regions of the city, and the time of year with the highest number of cases and the possible relationship between temperature and monthly precipitation. This research showed that the number of cases presented peaks every four years, and between 1990 and 2014 the reports were higher than 1000%. In addition, there was little influence of environmental effects on the number of cases, although it was possible to verify a seasonal characteristic. With the results of this work we suggest the need to implement public policies using the data obtained on the increase in the number of dengue cases according to the period established, thus avoiding insufficient or unnecessary expenses for the care of the patients.