The Relationship between the Entrepre-neur Confidence and Economic Fluctua-tion of China's Cotton-textile Industry

The goal of this paper is to study the relationship between entrepreneur confidence and economic fluctuation of China's cotton-textile industry. The entrepreneur confidence is decomposed into basic faith and animal spirit. By studying on the influence factors of basic faith, we find the gross output growth rate of cotton-textile industry; CPI, interest rate and China cotton index have fundamental influence on confidence of basic faith. With VAR model, the dynamic influence of animal spirit on cotton-textile industry economy is studied and found animal spirit has significant short-term effect on the economic growth of cotton-textile industry, CPI and interest rate. And the influencing mechanism is complying with characteristics of total cotton demand impact.