Prognostic models for predicting remission of diabetes following bariatric surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Remission of type 2 diabetes following bariatric surgery is well established but identifying patients who will go into remission is challenging. Purpose: To perform a systematic review of currently available diabetes remission prediction models, compare their performance, and evaluate their applicability in clinical settings. Data sources: A comprehensive systematic literature search of MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials was undertaken. The search was restricted to studies published in the last 15 years and in the English language. Study selection and data extraction: All studies developing or validating a prediction model for diabetes remission in adults after bariatric surgery were included. The search identified 4165 references of which 38 were included for data extraction. We identified 16 model development and 22 validation studies. Data synthesis: Of the 16 model development studies, 11 developed scoring systems and 5 proposed logistic regression models. In model development studies, 10 models showed excellent discrimination with area under curve (AUC) ≥ 0.800. Two of these prediction models, ABCD and DiaRem, were widely externally validated in different populations, a variety of bariatric procedures, and for both short- and long-term diabetes remission. Newer prediction models showed excellent discrimination in test studies, but external validation was limited. Limitations and Conclusions: Amongst the prediction models identified, the ABCD and DiaRem models were the most widely validated and showed acceptable to excellent discrimination. More studies validating newer models and focusing on long-term diabetes remission are needed.