Towards Computing the Battle for Hearts and Minds: Lessons from the Vendée

We analyze the conditions and processes that spawned a historic case of insurgency in the context of regime change. The analysis is an early step in the development of formal models that capture the complex dynamics of insurgencies, resistance and other conflicts that are often characterized as “battles for hearts and minds” (henceforth BHAM). The characterization, however, flattens the complexities of the conflict. It suggests bloodless engagements where victories come from public relations and demonstration projects that foster positive attitudes among a subject population. Officials conducting these battles sometimes use the label to mask their ignorance of the complexities and sometimes with the intention of minimizing their difficulties in dealing with them. Modeling can therefore be a constructive step in overcoming their impoverished thinking.