NKV: A New Keynesian Model with Vulnerability

We present a New Keynesian model with endogenous risk. The conditional output gap volatility depends on the price of risk, giving rise to a vulnerability channel of monetary policy. Lower interest rates not only shift consumption intertemporally but also shift conditional output risk. The model fits estimates of the conditional output gap distribution 1 to 12 quarters ahead and suggests an intertemporal risk return trade-off for policymakers. Via the impact on risk taking, easy monetary policy lowers short-term downside risks to growth but increases medium-term risks. The framework can be used to jointly consider macroprudential and monetary policy.