USING PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS TOOLS TO SIMULATE ALTERNATIVE PROJECT STRATEGIES

Systems Engineers and project managers routinely analyze and compare sets of alternatives in an effort to identify the best design or strategy to achieve the project's stated objectives. Software tools are available for performing such tasks, but the issue of uncertainty is often given little or no attention. This paper introduces the concept of analyzing and comparing project alternatives using probabilistic methods and provides an illustrative example of the use of software tools to simulate such analyses.