Updated optical modeling of JWST coronagraph performance contrast, stability, and strategies

We update performance simulations and contrast predictions for JWST's coronagraphs based on the latest infor- mation on the as-built telescope and instrument properties, including both static and dynamic contributions to wavefront error. By combining optical modeling of the telescope, instruments and coronagraph optics along with STScI's rigorously-validated exposure time calculation engine, we develop updated contrast models including contributions from effects such as target acquisition residuals, stellar color differences, etc. We present assessments of the impact of wavefront error changes over time between science and PSF reference stars, using modeled wavefront drifts on various timescales based on available observatory structural/thermal/optical modeling and tested performance during the OTIS cryo test, extrapolated to on-orbit conditions. For NIRCam we explore tradeoffs between different occulting masks at a given wavelength. Between now and the start of Cycle 1 science, these and other updated simulations will enable the science community to prepare analysis tools and PSF subtraction software to hit the ground running with JWST coronagraphic observations.