Distribución potencial de Musca domestica en el municipio de Jesús María, Aguascalientes, con el uso de escenarios de cambio climático

The housefly M. domestica is a primary domestic pest responsible for food decomposition, and is a vector for more than 100 pathogens in humans and animals. Climate conditions including temperature and relative humidity influence M. domestica development and prevalence. As climate change advances control programs for this species will need to adapt to evolving conditions. A development assay was done of M. domestica at different temperatures and relative humidities to estimate its current potential incidence in Jesus Maria Municipality, Aguascalientes, Mexico. Local climate is temperate semi-dry (BS1k) with 16 to 18 °C annual average temperature and 500 to 600 mm annual average rainfall. In a completely randomized design, six treatments involving different temperatures and relative humidities during the entire fly lifecycle were analyzed. Development conditions were ideal between 20 and 30 °C, conditions present in the study area between June and August. The CNRMCM5 (RCP 4.5) climate change model was used to predict extreme minimum temperatures in three time horizons: Short (2015-2039); Medium (2040-2060); and Long (2075-2090). Under the Medium and Long scenarios ideal development conditions could last as long as five months, representing a potential increase in the time M. domestica is present in the region, and in the duration of the public and animal health challenges it generates. The present results are important for planning future prevention, monitoring and control programs and strategies.