Social-ecological modelling of the spatial distribution of dengue fever and its temporal dynamics in Guayaquil, Ecuador for climate change adaption

Abstract Researchers have showed that climatic, population, economic, and social characteristics contribute to the proliferation of Aedes aegypti , the main vector of dengue fever (DF) in Ecuador. In this study, we identified the factors with the greatest influence on dengue virus spread using a spatio-temporal analysis. We applied the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to determine the spatial distribution of DF and identify areas with high probability of presence of A. aegypti by analyzing monthly climatic conditions, locations of reported dengue cases during 2012, and social factors in Guayaquil. Social variables showed greater influence on the presence and spread of disease during dengue outbreak season. The best model performance was obtained when the most important social variables were grouped based on components of the population's unsatisfied basic needs (UBN). Head of the household was a woman, the household was unoccupied, and UBN related to housing conditions at the household level were the most significant social risk factors. The final spatial distribution shows that the districts with the highest risks of infection are located mainly in the southern portion of the city, therefore these areas must take priority when integrated vector-control interventions and prevention protocols are carried out.