Predicting survival after acute civilian penetrating brain injuries: The SPIN score

Objective: To identify predictors associated with survival in civilian penetrating traumatic brain injury (pTBI) utilizing a contemporary, large, diverse 2-center cohort, and to develop a parsimonious survival prediction score for pTBI. Methods: Our cohort comprised 413 pTBI patients retrospectively identified from the local trauma registries at 2 US level 1 trauma centers, of which one was predominantly urban and the other predominantly rural. Predictors of in-hospital and 6-month survival identified in univariate and multivariable logistic regression were used to develop the simple Surviving Penetrating Injury to the Brain (SPIN) score. Results: The mean age was 33 ± 16 years and patients were predominantly male (87%). Survival at hospital discharge as well as 6 months post pTBI was 42.4%. Higher motor Glasgow Coma Scale subscore, pupillary reactivity, lack of self-inflicted injury, transfer from other hospital, female sex, lower Injury Severity Score, and lower international normalized ratio were independently associated with survival (all p Conclusions: The SPIN score, a logistic regression–based clinical risk stratification scale estimating survival after pTBI, was developed in this large, diverse 2-center cohort. While this preliminary clinical survival prediction tool does not include radiologic factors, it may support clinical decision-making after civilian pTBI if external validation confirms the probability estimates.