Pipe breaks and estimating the impact of pressure control in water supply networks

Abstract Deterioration and fracture of water supply pipes present a critical threat for the continuous provision of drinking water. The hydraulic pressure in pipes is recognised as an influential factor for the occurrence of pipe breaks. However, little evidence has been provided so far for the quantitative assessment of the impact of pressure control on reducing the number of pipe breaks. In this paper, we applied logistic regression with polynomial terms, and a sensitivity analysis to assess the potential impact of pressure control on reducing pipe breaks. A large data set of historic pipe breaks was used to develop and validate the presented method. Cast iron and asbestos cement pipes were examined in detail. Results showed that pipe breaks could be decreased by 18% to 30% by reducing the mean pressure in asbestos cement and cast iron pipes respectively. Pressure range reduction could potentially decrease more than half of pipe breaks for both pipe materials. These results showed the significant impact that managing the hydraulic pressure can provide to improve the reliability of water supply pipes.