Effects of Population Density on the Spread of Disease

A new coronavirus, MERS-CoV (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus) which is related to the coronavirus that caused the SARS outbreak 10 years ago, has been discovered in Saudi Arabia and observed in several other countries since 2012. A mathematical model is constructed in order to theorize possible patterns of the spread of this emerging disease which seems to require an extended contact time for transmission to occur. In order to better understand the role of population density on the spread of disease, the population is split into two groups, one with contact rates that are independent of population density and another group that has contact rates that are dependent on population density. Conditions under which the disease will spread are analyzed, and specifically, we note how population density affects the observed, theoretical dynamics and transmission characteristics predicted by the epidemiology model.