CHAOS AND PEAK-TO-PEAK DYNAMICS IN A PLANKTON-FISH MODEL

Abstract A plankton–fish model, comprising phosphorus, algae, zooplankton, and young fish, with light intensity and water temperature varying periodically with the seasons, is analyzed in this paper. For realistic values of the parameters the model behaves chaotically, but its dynamics within the strange attractor can be described by a few one-dimensional maps that allow one to forecast the next yearly peak of plankton or fish from the last peaks. This property is an unambiguous mark of a special form of chaos. Unfortunately, the estimate of such peak-to-peak maps from field data is possible only if plankton or young fish biomass has been sampled accurately and frequently for a paramount number of years. In conclusion, the analysis shows that it might be that plankton dynamics are characterized by an interesting and peculiar form of chaos, but that inferences from recorded data on the existence of these forms of chaos are premature.