Risk Quantification for Sustaining Coastal Military Installation Asset and Mission Capabilities (RC-1701)

Abstract : The best available evidence indicates that sea level rise is occurring at unprecedented rates, and while military commanders may be situationally aware of their installation's vulnerabilities, demonstrable risk-based assessments are needed to proactively adapt military systems, processes, and protocols in the face of this pervasive threat multiplier. This report describes the development and testing of a risk assessment framework--a coastal hazard risk assessment approach that incorporates sea level rise threats and communicates the risk of mission impairment to the military in a meaningful manner that supports mission adaptation and sustainability into the future. The approach is tested on a North Atlantic naval base (Naval Station Norfolk, VA) using a variety of prescribed sea level rise scenarios (0-2m) in combination with simulated coastal storms ranging in intensities of 1-yr to 100-yr return intervals. Forcings (waves, winds, sediment, flooding, etc.) are generated using a group of high fidelity numerical storm models. Installation assets and missions are decomposed (i.e., broken down into critical assets and capabilities that contribute to mission performance), and storm damage to the infrastructure network are assessed using probabilistic Bayesian analyses. The risk-based approach and step-by-step procedures presented here can be used to assess risks to mission on other military installations facing similar threats from coastal hazards and rising sea levels. Moreover, the approach can be used to assess vulnerability and risks at the regional scale to encourage preparedness and enhance coastal resiliency both on and off military installations. In effect, this study offers a robust, scientifically defensible approach that transparently communicates potential risks, improves military readiness, and promotes sustainability in the face of climate change and sea level rise.