ВАРІАЦІЙНА ПРЯМА ЗАДАЧА ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ РОЗВИТКУ ТРАНСПОРТНИХ АВІАЦІЙНИХ СИСТЕМ

The problem of transport aviation system development forecasting modeling is considered in the article. The Pontryagin’s method for variational problems solving is used for this purpose. The problem solution is given in common case, and in particular one, when only two competing aviation systems are considered. For particular case, the optimality condition of aviation groups packaging by one or two competing aviation systems were determined at condition of transport system maximal efficiency achievement during set time period. It was found that the conditions of competitiveness of aviation systems, as well as their monopoly does not hold for the time-dependent intensities of the appropriations for the development of transport systems and the loss of aircraft systems, as well as the time and number of aircraft systems, the intensity of the operation, the cost of creating, the intensity for sale abroad and annual operating costs.