The Past and Future of Arab Civil-Military Relations

To discuss military responses to the recent social uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), it is imperative to explore explanations concerning military behavior in the political realm. First, this chapter explains the historical nuances of Middle Eastern militaries’ intervention in political affairs. Much of human behavior is path-dependent; the past informs the future. An understanding of military behavior in the midst of the Arab Awakening is incomplete without an understanding of civil-military relations in the Arab Middle East since World War II. Second, this chapter explores the contours of the theoretical debate concerning civil-military relations in the Arab Middle East. One cannot readily evaluate the merits of my argumentation without a robust understanding of what other scholars have said on this matter. Third, this chapter illuminates that there is no strict monocausal variable that explains the manner in which Middle Eastern militaries intervened in the Arab Awakening. In the course of most human events, multiple variables are at play. Finally, this chapter explains that we are entering a new era of civil-military relations in the MENA. Militaries are no longer the protector of Arab autocrats or the progenitor of regime change; rather, militaries across the MENA are acting as arbiters of social unrest, deciding whether to support “the street” or defend the regime.