Incidência e mortalidade por COVID-19 na população idosa brasileira e sua relação com indicadores contextuais: um estudo ecológico

Objetivo: analisar a incidencia e mortalidade por COVID-19 na populacao idosa no Brasil e sua relacao com variaveis contextuais Metodos: foram incluidas as 22 Unidades Federativas brasileiras que apresentaram 50 obitos ou mais por COVID-19 ate o dia 25 de maio de 2020 Considerou-se como variaveis dependentes as taxas de incidencia acumulada, mortalidade acumulada e letalidade acumulada em idosos Entre as variaveis contextuais, foram incluidas a oferta de servicos e profissionais de saude, indicadores demograficos, de renda e desenvolvimento As variaveis foram analisadas de forma descritiva e bivariada pela correlacao de Spearman Resultados: o estado do Para apresentou a maior taxa de incidencia e mortalidade em idosos As maiores taxas de letalidade acumulada entre os idosos foram observadas na Bahia (56,46%), Rio de Janeiro (48,10%) e Pernambuco (40,76%) Observou-se correlacao moderada negativa significativa entre a taxa de incidencia acumulada e o indice de envelhecimento (rho= -0,662;p=0,001) e a proporcao de idosos (rho= -0,659;p=0,002);e entre a taxa de mortalidade e o indice de envelhecimento (rho= -0,520;p=0,013) e a proporcao de idosos (rho= -0,502;p=0,017) A taxa de incidencia acumulada e a taxa de mortalidade tambem apresentaram, respectivamente, correlacao moderada positiva significativa com a proporcao de pretos e pardos (rho=0,524;p=0,018 e rho=0,558;p=0,007) e com a razao de renda (rho=0,665;p=0,0001 e rho=0,683;p<0,001) Conclusoes: a situacao epidemiologica brasileira mostra que a mortalidade de idosos por COVID-19 no Brasil esta relacionada a aspectos demograficos e de distribuicao de renda Objective: to analyze the incidence of and mortality caused by COVID-19 in the older population in Brazil and its relationship with contextual variables Methods: the 22 Brazilian states (including the Federal District) with 50 deaths or more due to COVID-19 by May 25th, 2020 were included The rates of accumulated incidence, accumulated mortality and accumulated lethality among older adults were considered as dependent variables Among the contextual variables, the provision of health services and professionals, and demographic, income and development indicators were included The variables were analyzed in a descriptive and bivariate manner using Spearman's correlation Results: the state of Para had the highest incidence and mortality rate among older adults The highest accumulated lethality rates among this population were observed in Bahia (56 46%), Rio de Janeiro (48 10%) and Pernambuco (40 76%) There was a significant negative moderate correlation between the accumulated incidence rate and the aging index (rho=-0 662;p=0 001) and the proportion of older adults (rho=-0 659;p=0 002);and between the mortality rate and the aging index (rho=-0 520;p=0 013) and the proportion of older adults (rho=-0 502;p=0 017) The accumulated incidence rate and mortality rate also revealed, respectively, a significant positive correlation with the proportion of black (AfroBrazilian) and brown (mixed race) skinned people (rho=0 524;p=0 018 and rho=0 558;p=0 007) and with the income ratio (rho=0 665;p=0 0001 and rho=0 683;p<0 001) Conclusions: the Brazilian epidemiological situation shows that the mortality of older adults due to COVID-19 in Brazil is related to demographic and income distribution aspects