Estimating residential energy flexibility potential through forced activations

Energy flexibility characterization studies have largely focused on the case of smart buildings that respond to penalty or activation signals. This assumes the presence of flexible loads or human occupants in the building which modulate their behavior according to a penalty signal. In practice, defining and implementing this penalty signal is challenging in the residential context due to limited economic rewards and low price elasticity of householders. However, in many developing countries, electricity grid outages or black-outs are endemic, and it is possible to view these blackouts as recurring 'forced' flexibility activation (or very large penalty) signals. In this paper, we study the response of 42 residential buildings in Pakistan to these activation signals to better understand the energy flexibility potential of ubiquitous UPS systems. Utilizing real-world demand data, the paper also demonstrates a method to estimate the amount of curtailed and shifted energy. Understanding and leveraging this flexibility will play a crucial role in enabling future demand response programs in developing countries.