Charging Load Prediction and Distribution Network Reliability Evaluation Considering Electric Vehicles’ Spatial-Temporal Transfer Randomness

Integration of large-scale cluster electric vehicles (EVs) and their spatial-temporal transfer randomness are likely to affect the safety and economic operation of the distribution network. This paper investigates the spatial-temporal distribution prediction of EVs' charging load and then evaluates the reliability of the distribution network penetrated with large-scale cluster EVs. To effectively predict the charging load, trip chain technology, Monte Carlo method and Markov decision process (MDP) theory are employed. Moreover, a spatial-temporal transfer model of EVs is established, and based on which, an EV energy consumption model and a charging load prediction model are constructed with consideration of temperature, traffic condition and EV owner's subjective willingness in different scenarios. With the application of sequential Monte Carlo method, the paper further evaluates distribution network reliability in various charging scenarios. In the evaluation, indices including per unit value (PUV), fast voltage stability index (FVSI), loss of load probability (LOLP), system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI), system average interruption duration index (SAIDI), and expected energy not supplied (EENS) are incorporated. To validate the proposed prediction model and evaluation method, a series of numerical simulations are conducted on the basis of taking the traffic-distribution system of a typical city as an example. The result demonstrates that the proposed spatial-temporal transfer model is more practical in charging load prediction than the popularly used Dijkstra's shortest path algorithm. Moreover, high temperature, congestion and the increment of EV penetration rate will further weaken distribution network reliability.