Spatial evolution of population change in Northeast China during 1992–2018

Abstract In the context of rapid socioeconomic development, population mobility has become an increasingly prominent phenomenon and is profoundly influencing urban development. Therefore, when proposing strategies to rejuvenate Northeast China and promoting sustainable development in the region, it is important to explore long-term population trends and to formulate development strategies and policies accordingly. Using remote-sensing nighttime light data obtained by DMSP/OLS during 1992–2012 and NPP-VIIRS during 2012–2018 in combination with population statistics for China’s three northeastern provinces, this study estimated the population of 36 prefecture-level cities and quantitatively studied population loss trends. The results showed that: (1) the three northeastern provinces have great population mobility, presenting a multi-center “T”-shaped spatial pattern with provincial capitals being the main center and population gradually decreasing toward peripheral areas, with Liaoning > Heilongjiang > Jilin in terms of overall population; (2) from 1992 to 1996, the population of the three northeastern provinces showed a positive linear growth trend, with the population increasing by 5.64 × 104 people and an average population growth rate of 2.29% over the four-year period; from 1996 to 2006, population growth slowed, with an increase of only 2.08 × 104 people over 10 years, and the average growth rate dropped to 0.18%; in 2006–2011, population growth showed a negative trend, with a population loss of 0.98 × 104 people and a decline rate of 0.31%; beginning in 2012, population loss was very serious, presenting a sharp linear decline, and by 2018, the population loss was as high as 4.46 × 106 people. Our findings indicate that population loss will result in a series of negative effects in the region, not only affecting the population growth structure but also changing the regional population structure, and inconveniencing government management and planning.