RISK ANALYSIS OF THE INTERACTION OF MARINE SHIPPING AND OFFSHORE OPERATIONS IN THE GULF OF SUEZ

This paper reviews the International Maritime Organisation's adopted measures to encourage safe ship routeing and traffic separation schemes. In particular, the rules adopted by the Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum, for the oil and gas exploration and exploitation in the Gulf of Suez, are presented. Also presented are some analytical results of marine casualties in the Gulf together with a summary of ship movements and the hazardous cargo types involved. Of the recent casualties over 50% are caused by collision, contact (with non-navigable objects) and grounding. Although comparable with the North Sea, it is suggested that the complex interaction of ship traffic with future oil and gas offshore developments is best considered through the application of risk analysis. Risk analysis methodologies are discussed. Safety is best judged through the quantification of risk. It is shown that a special risk model for the area could be developed. This would quantify and compare safety relates risks, and produce technical results upon which governments can make their future decisions. The paper ends by recommending the evaluation of these risks for future developments in the Gulf in order to serve the international marine industry and the Egyptian Government.