Improving Applications in Agriculture of ENSO-Based Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts Considering Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperatures

Climate uncertainties, derived from annual climatic variability, often lead to conservative crop management strategies that sacrifice some productivity to reduce the risk of losses in bad years. The availability of ENSO-based climate forecasts has led many to believe that such forecasts may benefit decision-making in agriculture. The forecasting capability may allow the mitigation of negative effects of ENSO-related climate variability as well as taking advantage of favorable conditions (Stern and Easterling 1999).