Time-varying sensitivity analysis of hydrologic and sediment parameters at multiple timescales: Implications for conservation practices

Abstract Environmental models can be used to better understand the hydrologic and sediment behavior in a watershed system. However, different processes may dominate at different time periods and timescales, which highly complicate the model interpretation. The related parameter uncertainty may be significant and needs to be addressed to avoid bias in the watershed management. In this study, we used the time-varying and multi-timescale (TVMT) method to characterize the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity at different timescales in hydrologic and sediment modeling. As a case study, the first order sensitivity indices were estimated with the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) method for the Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) model in the Zhangjiachong catchment in the Three Gorge Reservoir Region (TGRR) in China. The results were compared to those of the traditional aggregate method to demonstrate the merits of the TVMT method. The time-varying nature of the hydrologic and sediment parameters was revealed and explained mainly by the variation of hydro-climatic conditions. The baseflow recession parameter, evapotranspiration (ET) parameter for the soil storage, and sediment washoff parameter showed high sensitivities almost across the whole period. However, parameters related to canopy interception and channel sediment scour varied notably over time due to changes in the climate forcing. The timescale-dependent characteristics was observed and was most evident for the baseflow recession parameter and ET parameter. At last, the parameters affecting the sediment export and transport were discussed together with the inferred conservation practices. Reasonable controls for sediment must be storm-dependent. Compared to management practices on the land surface, practices affecting channel process would be more effective during storm events. Our results present one of the first investigations for sediment modeling in terms of the importance of parameter sensitivity in both time periods and evaluation timescales for the model calibration, diagnostic evaluation, and prioritizing efforts for conservation practices.