Türkiye İl-İlçe Merkezlerindeki Ölüm Oranlarının Trend ve Lee-Carter Yöntemleri ile Tahmini

Mortality forecasts are especially used to evaluate the future security of retirement and social security systems, private insurance plans etc. These forecasts are taking an important place providing a financial stability as a principal component of actuarial calculations. Mortality forecasting methods having a considerably old history can be categorized as deterministic and stochastic methods. After deterministic models, it is seen that stochastic models have emerged with a view to constituting a more accurate and reliable mortality forecasting models making a more robust assessment of mortality profile in parallel with the demographic change in recent years. In this study, mortality forecasts based on population and death statistics special to province and district centers of Turkey are obtained using one of the deterministic methods called as Trend method and one of the stochastic methods called as Lee-Carter method.