Emerging trends among the South African inmate population and persons subject to community corrections

The daily average inmate population increased from 110 047 in 1995 to 184 576 in 2003. This represents an increase of 67, 7 percent over a period of nine years. Forecasts indicate that by the year 2010 the daily average inmate population will exceed a quarter of a million, with males representing 97, 68 percent of that total figure. Within the next ten years the unsentenced inmate population will double to more than 100 000 and the inmate population with sentences of two years or more will increase at a faster rate than that of short-term inmates. Up until September 1997 the economic crime category was the largest component and represented 41 percent of the total inmate population. Since then the aggressive crime category has become the largest component and it is estimated that this category will grow to 130 558 by the year 2010, representing more than 50 percent of the total inmate population. The number of youth offenders in prisons increased by 103 percent over eight years, from 14 172 in 1995 to 28 761 in 2002. By the year 2010 the number of youth offenders in prison will grow to 45 622, representing 17, 7 percent (compared to 12, 9% in 1995) of the total daily average inmate population. The daily average number of persons subject to community corrections almost doubled from 27 278 in 1995 to 77 435 in 2003. However, it is estimated that over the next two decades the daily average number of persons subject to community corrections will proportionately remain in the region of 30 percent of the total daily average inmate, parolee and probationer population. Forecasts based on historical trends provide a picture of the future profile of the inmate population and persons subject to community corrections, which enables the corrections industry to address the challenges emanating from these projections strategically and well in advance.