Demographic processes land and environment in Guatemala

This work explores mechanisms through which population growth and the characteristics of the agricultural sector combine to bring about migratory movement leading to further deforestation in Guatemala. To place the Guatemalan experience in a broader context two groups of theories relevant to the topic are first reviewed those related to effects of population growth on agricultural families and those related to determinants of emigration from rural areas. The main features of recent population growth and agricultural development and projections of future developments in the six major Central American countries are then summarized. Two assumptions concerning the evolution of fertility in Guatemala are then used as the basis for projections through 2030. The high and low variants respectively project a total population of 37 million and 24 million in 2030. Assuming a constant rate of participation based on sex and age the agricultural labor force would grow from 1.1 million in 1980 to 2.9 or 2.2 million in 2030. Fragmentation of holdings has been a major effect of population growth in Guatemala. Distribution of land in Guatemala is among the worlds most unequal; in 1964 44% of farmers owned just 3.4% of all lands while 2% owned two-thirds. By 1979 60% controlled 3.7% while 2% still controlled two-thirds. The total agricultural area increased by 13.5% primarily at the expense of forested areas. 76% of the new lands were in large holdings in the northern region of El Peten which continues to have a low population density. The number of very small holdings doubled between 1964 and 1979 primarily in the densely populated altiplano. It can be expected that future population growth will contribute to a worsening of employment conditions in rural areas. Fragmentation of lands and lack of rural employment are related to past and projected future patterns of migration from rural areas. Much rural migration in Guatemala has been directed toward other rural areas leading to extensive clearing of the remaining forested areas in El Peten. The lack of an agricultural or population census since 1981 greatly impedes precise analysis of the links between population processes land and environmental issues in Guatemala.