DeepMove: Predicting Human Mobility with Attentional Recurrent Networks

Human mobility prediction is of great importance for a wide spectrum of location-based applications. However, predicting mobility is not trivial because of three challenges: 1) the complex sequential transition regularities exhibited with time-dependent and high-order nature; 2) the multi-level periodicity of human mobility; and 3) the heterogeneity and sparsity of the collected trajectory data. In this paper, we propose DeepMove, an attentional recurrent network for mobility prediction from lengthy and sparse trajectories. In DeepMove, we first design a multi-modal embedding recurrent neural network to capture the complicated sequential transitions by jointly embedding the multiple factors that govern the human mobility. Then, we propose a historical attention model with two mechanisms to capture the multi-level periodicity in a principle way, which effectively utilizes the periodicity nature to augment the recurrent neural network for mobility prediction. We perform experiments on three representative real-life mobility datasets, and extensive evaluation results demonstrate that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art models by more than 10%. Moreover, compared with existing simple neural network models, DeepMove provides intuitive explanations into the prediction and sheds light on interpretable mobility prediction.