Multiscale Network Model for Evaluating Global Outbreak Control Strategies

High volumes of passenger air travel increase the risk of infectious disease epidemics and pandemics. Regional preparedness planning for large-scale outbreaks requires models that are able to capture outbreak dynamics within a control policy evaluation framework. Previous studies focused on either modeling outbreak dynamics or optimizing outbreak control decisions; this paper proposes an integrated approach that combines both aspects. A multiscale epidemic outbreak model is introduced that is designed to capture the infection dynamics at both the local (city) scale and the global (air travel) scale. A bilevel decision-making framework is then proposed to identify the optimal set of outbreak control policies, while accounting for local and global outbreak dynamics. The model is implemented for a case study in which a hypothetical epidemic outbreak is assumed to emerge from within the United States, and different control resource allocation strategies are explored and evaluated. The results highlight the im...