PUBLIC-SAFETY IMPACTS OF POLICIES DEVELOPED FOR PRODUCTIVE ENERGY CONSERVATION IN URBAN TRANSPORTATION

This assessment of the public safety impacts of the policies developed for the Technology Assessment of Productive Conservation in Urban Transportation (TAPCUT) project focuses on two scenarios. The scenarios vary by the rate of growth of the Gross National Product (GNP), rate of fuel price increase, amount of technology development, and level of social organization. The two scenarios provide a set of background economic and social conditions from which to judge the effect of the TAPCUT project conservation policies. The policies (In-Place, Group Travel, and Individual Travel) vary in the type of land-use patterns, vehicle fuel and technologies, vehicle taxes, and mass-transit options that are available. The In-Place Policy reflects a continuation of 1980 conditions and regulations that affect the transportation sector. The Group Travel Policy promotes energy conservation through use of mass transit while allowing for minimal improvements to automobile technology development. The Individual Travel Policy promotes energy conservation through auto technology improvements, with no changes in group travel costs or services. The impacts of the policies on public safety in both scenarios were examined in three prototype cities: (1) Sprawlburg, representing a relatively new, growing city; (2) Megatown, representing a large, mature, industrialized city; and (3) Slowtown, representingmore » a small, mid-sized, industrially based city.National impact totals were then developed. The time frame of the assessment was 1975 to 2000. The assessment identified several major trends in public safety impacts. The changes at a national level reflect the basic assumptions of the scenarios.« less