Sensitivity of 24-h Forecast Dryline Position and Structure to Boundary Layer Parameterizations in Convection-Allowing WRF Model Simulations

AbstractRecent NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments have emphasized the sensitivity of forecast sensible weather fields to how boundary layer processes are represented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Thus, since 2010, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms has configured at least three members of their WRF-based Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) system specifically for examination of sensitivities to parameterizations of turbulent mixing, including the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ); quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE); Asymmetrical Convective Model, version 2 (ACM2); Yonsei University (YSU); and Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) schemes (hereafter PBL members). In postexperiment analyses, significant differences in forecast boundary layer structure and evolution have been observed, and for preconvective environments MYNN was found to have a superior depiction of temperature and moisture profiles. This study evaluates the 24-h forecast dryline po...