A High Resolution Spatiotemporal Urban Heat Load Model for GB

The decarbonisation of heating in the United Kingdom is likely to entail both the mass adoption of heat pumps and widespread development of district heating infrastructure. Estimation of the spatially disaggregated heat demand is needed for both electrical distribution network with electrified heating and for the development of district heating. The temporal variation of heat demand is important when considering the operation of district heating, thermal energy storage and electrical grid storage. The difference between the national and urban heat demands profiles will vary due to the type and occupancy of buildings leading to temporal variations which have not been widely surveyed. This paper develops a high-resolution spatiotemporal heat load model for Great Britain (GB: England, Scotland a Wales) by identifying the appropriate datasets, archetype segmentation and characterisation for the domestic and nondomestic building stock. This is applied to a thermal model and calibrated on the local scale using gas consumption statistics. The annual GB heat demand was in close agreement with other estimates and the peak demand was 219 GWth. The urban heat demand was found to have a lower peak to trough ratio than the average national demand profile. This will have important implications for the uptake of heating technologies and design of district heating.