Towards optimisation of the HIV / AIDS modelling process in South Africa.

South Africa is beginning to feel the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in terms of growing morbidity and mortality health and social welfare costs productivity losses and perceived threats to market growth. South Africa will continue to experience increasing prevalence rates already seen in other African countries and previously predicted by a number of HIV/AIDS modelers. The authors consider whether such models are adequate whether they have been clearly understood and whether they are being appropriately used. The authors first review HIV/AIDS modelling techniques then elaborate upon the currently most widely used and accepted South African model. The Doyle model is described in detail followed by a discussion of modelling beyond the insurance industry. The modelling process can help efforts designed and implemented to control the HIV/AIDS epidemic and in understanding its potential impact upon market opportunities. The Doyle model appears robust enough to provide the demographic output required and is able to be adapted for many applications.