Forecasting the Potential Effects of Climatic and Land-Use Changes on Shoreline Variation in Relation to Watershed Sediment Supply and Transport

ABSTRACT Kim, J.; Choi, J.; Choi, C., and Hwang, C., 2017. Forecasting the potential effects of climatic and land-use changes on shoreline variation in relation to watershed sediment supply and transport. This study investigated the potential effects of future climatic and land-use changes on sediment supply and shorelines in the Hoeya River estuary, Korea. Historical shoreline variations were determined along Jinha and Solgae Beaches for the period 1975–2013 using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System. Sediments during future periods were simulated in this watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios using the soil and water assessment tool model. Subsequently, this study analyzed the correlations between the beaches and the sediment supply. For the natural beaches BS-I (0.805) and BS-II (0.700) in 1975–2013, the river-supplied sediment was closely correlated to shoreline changes. The area of beach sediment for future periods was assessed based on R-squared values. The ...