Information Variables for the Predictability of Future Changes in Real Growth

It has been interested in developing useful information variables that are able to predict the future movement of final objects to attain the specific policy and strategic target. Term structure of interest rates is known as an important variable to predict future business and economic activity, yet there is little empirical work on the predictability of future changes in real output. This study attempts to develop the statistical model and examine whether domestic term structure of interest rates can predict variations of future cumulative changes in real growth on a long time horizon.