A Pool-Based Model of the Spatial Distribution of Undiscovered Petroleum Resoufrces

An approach is proposed to predict the spatial distributions of undiscovered petroleum resources. Each pool is parameterized as a marked-point. The independence chain of the Hastings algorithm is used to generate an appropriate structure for pool combinations in a play. Petroleum-bearing favorability estimated from geological observations is used to represent the sampling probabilities of pool locations. An objective function measuring the distance between characteristics of the realization and constraints is constructed from both the pool size distribution and entropy maximum criterion, in which the entropy criterion places all undiscovered pools in the most favorable positions. The geometrical convergence property of the proposed Hastings algorithm is presented. The method is illustrated by a case study from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin.