Decreasing population growth in developing countries: myth or reality?

A worldwide decline in both fertility and growth rates had been reported by international population assistance agencies and media press releases. However a detailed analysis of available population statistics reveals a wide range of variability among data sources from many of the largest and smaller countries in the lesser developed world. Due to variability and internal inconsistencies within data sources accurate overall or individual country growth rates increases or decreases are difficult to ascertain in many lesser developed countries (LDCs). In many countries the absolute number of population is increasing each year even though there has been a decline of fertility and growth rate in recent years. Thus more females have become available for reproduction in future years especially in the light of reduced female morbidity and mortality. Many of the LDCs still use inadequate population estimation procedures and conclusions regarding fertility and growth rate declines are at best educated guesses. Until more reliable measurement techniques are developed and implemented effectiveness of population assistance policies will depend on costly trial and error.