The Productivity and Uncertainties in Emerging Biotechnology Companies in China:Panel Data Analysis Based on DEA and Neural Network Simulation

Being China's strategic emerging industries,bio-industry is considered an important measure for China in seizing new opportunities for scientific and technological development,as well as building an innovation-oriented country.However,due to the backwards nature of industrialization which is self-incurred characteristics on bio-industry,the productivity of bio-business is low in general.To reflect its productivity,an indicator system was constructed.DEA window analysis of the panel data is used to analyze productivity from 2000 to 2008 and the neural network simulation to forecast 2009 to 2011.Empirical results are acquired that established the progress over nine years or the next three years.This indicates that most of the productivity of the enterprises is greatly uncertain;indigenous growth capacity is low;redundant inputs and inadequate outputs are widespread.During this period,the industry is growing,helping cultivate indigenous innovation.