Stay-at-Home Orders and the Willingness to Stay Home During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Stated-Preference Discrete Choice Experiment

The spread of COVID-19 in the Spring of 2020 prompted state and local governments to implement a variety of policies, including stay-at-home (SAH) orders and mandatory mask requirements, aimed at reducing infection rates and the severity of the pandemic’s impact. We implement a discrete choice experiment survey in three major U.S. States - California, Georgia, and Illinois - to empirically quantify individuals’ willingness to stay (WTS) home, measured as the number of weeks of a potential new SAH order, to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 disease and explore factors leading to their heterogeneous WTS. Our results demonstrate broad support for statewide mask mandates. In addition, the estimate of WTS to lower new positive cases is quite large, approximately five and half weeks, even though staying home lowers utility. We also find that individuals recognize the trade-offs between case reduction and economic slowdown stemming from SAH orders when they decide to stay home or not. Finally, pandemic related factors such as age, ability to work from home, and unemployment status are the major drivers of the heterogeneity in individuals’ WTS.